Tag: QPAM

  • QPAM: Uncertainty

    A first form of uncertainty is randomness. It is a stochastic behaviour that can be dealt with sensitivity analysis, estimates from experience (actuarial) or hedging. A more complicated form of uncertainty is indeterminacy. It describes situations that are qualitatively known, but cannot be reliably quantified. It is often addressed by attempting to quantify it anyway…

  • CGSS: Introduction to Game Theory

    A fundamental problem is over-usage. Usually, nobody wants over-usage to occur. However, on an individual level companies want to maximise their profit while they neglect the social cost. The problem is also known as the Tragedy of the commons which is based on the free-rider dilemma. A game is defined by three components: players, actions,…

  • QPAM: Investment Appraisal

    To perform investment appraisal we need to analyse cost and revenues. First we need to find profitability indicators, then we need to assess the life cycle cost. Then we can perform a cost effectiveness analysis and last we need to also consider dynamics and sensitivities. Profitability Indicators On the cost side we have investment costs,…

  • QPAM: Problem Definition

    Before a policy analysis can be performed, the underlying problem needs to be defined. Any problem definition is a function of what the author of the definition cares about and what they assume in terms of necessary relationships. Bardach suggested to be clear about what you care about and what you assume about the fact…

  • QPAM: Introduction

    Quantitative Policy Analysis and Modelling (QPAM) concerns itself with the goals that we set ourselves for society and how government can obtain these goals. The “Grüne Wirtschaft” initiative currently up for a referendum in Switzerland can be said to have the goal of a sustainable economy by 2050. If accepted it mandates to assess the…